FLASHBACK ARTICLE FROM JANUARY 2008
Time is a determined thing. In most cases it passes faster than we can perceive it and react to it.
Looking forward to the future of the mobile disc jockey industry, more specifically, the wedding mobile disc jockey poses some harsh realities. The US population continues to grow, yet the marriage ratio fails to keep in step with that growth. There are more MDJs without business sense entering the marketplace every month. The imbalance in supply and demand, coupled by the ignorance of taking any price out of abject desperation just to get an event paints a pretty bleak future.
2007 was a turning point for many in realizing the impact of social dynamics and economy on their wedding calendars. While the final marriage numbers from the CDC will be released in about nine months. Based upon first quarter 2007 marriage rate statistics, which were among the worst in over a decade, 2007 is expected to close out with a marriage rate of 7.2 marriages per thousand or around 2,150,000 marriages. Which is slightly lower than 2,161,812 marriages in 2006.
The forecast for 2008 isn’t much better. Expect a decline in marriages to an all time historical low marriage rate of 7.0 marriages per thousand in population or around 2,100,000 weddings.
However, the long term forecast show some promise. The ECHO Generation, nearly 80 million babies born between 1982 and 1995, will be entering the optimum marriage age group which should reflect a rise in marriages as we approach 2011.
A significant rise in weddings from 1975-1980 (254,046) marked an increase in births (453,802) for the same time period. Births rates continued to rise through 1990 which is notable. 1,034,802 more births in 1990 than 1975. Babies born in 1990 will be entering the 2nd largest marriage group 20-24yr olds. The largest being 25-29yr olds.
Factoring in the birthrate offers a glimpse of total market potential, however, increases in the number of MDJ entities will most likely negate any advances in numbers offered by the influx of the ECHO generation.
Curiously, the very generation (ECHO) that marked a substantial increase in births and a moderate increase in future weddings are the incoming MDJ competition that the wedding marketplace must contend with.
The ECHO generation is already exerting it’s affect on several segments of the economy. Early indications suggest that conventional purchase processes are not employed by the ECHO generation, due in part to being “the most watched over generation in history”; according to Steve Kroft, CBS News. Steve Kroft adds: “Sometimes, they don’t know what to do if they’re just left outside and you say, ‘Well, just do something by yourself for a while,’”. “They’ll look around stunned. You know, ‘What are we supposed to do now?’”
The ECHO generation bride will ultimately require more target marketing to entice and prove to be more fickle when applying Google pricing mentality.
The ECHO generation class will most likely exert more damage on the MDJ industry by creating a new breed of “bottom-feeder” that applies faulty logic to attain instant gratification over long-range thinking and delayed gratification.
Bracing and positioning oneself in the coming years to achieve or maintain profitability takes simple common sense. The WalMart of MDJs mentality will eventually fail. Consumed by itself and the faulty logic from whence it came.
2011 could offer 2,683,200 weddings, however, a projected MDJ population of 115,000 could lower the average weddings per capita for MDJs from 28 per/yr to 23 per/yr. 5 weddings per MDJ doesn’t seem like alot, however, it equates to around 18,642 MDJs that would essentially go without or fall seriously short of profitability inducing more predatory pricing techniques.
Perhaps the most moronic logic applied in pursuit of the ECHO generation is: “you can’t pay your bills with integrity”.
My response: “You cannot achieve success by embracing mediocrity”.
Dude Walker can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
FLASHBACK ARTICLE FROM JANUARY 2008